September 23, 2008
What an ignominious end to the Nortel saga; talk about the death of a company in slow motion.
Last week, Nortel executives reduced financial guidance for the year, warning that the company would shrink by about 4 per cent. Saying that the status quo was no longer an option for the maker of network equipment, officials said they had begun talking to potential buyers for the metro ethernet networks unit.
The division, one of the fastest-growing portions of the company, makes gear for delivering multimedia content over local broadband networks. It accounted for 13 per cent of Nortel’s $5.38-billion (U.S.) in revenue in the first six months of the year.
You know it’s bad when you’re selling off the future of the company! It’s the inability to think beyond the current situation that causes a lot of problems.
No Comments » |
Business, Interesting Articles, Stocks |
Permalink
Posted by Nelson Yee
September 22, 2008
Mutant, one of the very few posters on Metafilter worth reading for in-depth knowledge of the financial and banking industry, has posted another of his detailed collections of links on a theme, this time the expanding markets of hedge funds (perhaps “alternative investors” is more accurate?) He ends with a link to a Financial Times’ article on a more organized take on poker backing, which is something I’ve always found reminded me a lot of investing.
One of the things the article makes clear to me is that poker is perhaps not the best investment at the moment, as by its nature and reputation, it rarely attracts the kind of player that isn’t in some form a gambler (i.e. someone who plays for excitement). Perhaps that will change if this becomes more developed, although I imagine that it would take a lot of the spirit out of the game and is probably antithetical to the reasons most people get into poker. Once you start seeing accredited educational institutions with poker majors, the poker industry would dry up. Or maybe not — the financial trade is bigger than its ever been. All of these changes have come on the back of networks and technology.
One of the more interesting conventions they use in the article, at least in the latter half, is calling the BadBeat poker players “traders”. I find this a little imprecise — one of the main distinctions between poker and finance in my opinion is that there really isn’t a “market” in poker, one where you can take opposite sides of a position.
No Comments » |
Business, Finance and Investing Links, Interesting Articles, Investing Philosophy |
Permalink
Posted by Nelson Yee
August 30, 2008
Interesting article by Joe Nocera (the editor of Smartest Guys in the Room) about Carl Icahn’s reputation as “an activist investor” and his dealings at XO Communications. “Activism” in this case meaning to the benefit of the bulk of shareholders, which I find a somewhat degraded version of the word already.
Guys like Carl Icahn like net operating losses. If they can get their hands on them — which they can if they control 80 percent of the company with the losses — they can apply the losses against their corporate tax bill. So in November 2005, at a time when XO’s stock was around $3 a share, Mr. Icahn proposed the following deal: He would buy the company’s fiber optic assets for $700 million and take the net operating losses as well. The other XO shareholders would be left with the worthless wireless frequency — and they would have to use most of the $700 million to pay off the debt it owed to … Carl Icahn!
Let’s dwell on this for a minute. In his role as board chairman, Mr. Icahn was telling XO’s shareholders that it was in their best interests to sell. And yet, he was also saying that it was in his best interest to buy. It couldn’t really be both. Naturally, Mr. Icahn’s cronies on the board agreed to the deal. R2 Investments, however, reacted by filing a lawsuit, claiming that Mr. Icahn and the board were violating their fiduciary duty to the company’s shareholders.
No Comments » |
Business, Interesting Articles |
Permalink
Posted by Nelson Yee
April 15, 2008
1. I’ve started a paper trading journal, simply to document the reasoning behind any moves I make in my portfolio. It’s a surprisingly good way to have to articulate a position: what’s the strategy, what motivated it. Quite often, it’s initiated by some reading or discussion I’ve done. To be honest, much of my investing is not truly quantitative or based on fundamental analysis, even though I’m steadily hoarding more and more unread “Analysis of Financial Statements” textbooks, in the event that flammable materials become scarce. It’s almost talismanic, my need to pore over these strategies and then not actually apply it to most of investing. And in retrospect, some of my biggest scores have been almost completely random, or motivated by the flimsiest of rationales. I’ve been reading Mauboussin’s book More Than You Know, a collection of some of his old essays, and there’s a good quote about how it’s possible to do well investing even if you don’t adopt a smart methodology, but that the odds are against you over time, so it’s quite possible that if I don’t shape up (hence the trading journal) I could be a big ol’ washout.
2. Not really related to investing, but sort of on the “I’m a cheapskate” tip, someone really needs to start a “cheap wine blog” based out of British Columbia. I’m not that someone, but I’m cheering you on, nameless potential wineblogger! I’m enjoying stuff like this blog, but frankly when you’re sticking to the BC Liquor Store, you’ve got a limited selection to work with.
1 Comment |
Business, Interesting Articles, Investing Philosophy |
Permalink
Posted by Nelson Yee
April 3, 2008
I’m reading an out-of-print book recommended by Brad DeLong called Wall Street by Doug Henwood, published in 1997. Some parts seem eerily prescient, or maybe it’s just that same old ish keeps happening again and again:
But it’s wrong to blame only the government, despite the American habit of doing so. Virtually every high-end profession around was involved (a point made well by Martin Mayer [1990]). Auditors repeatedly certified fictitious financial statements, lawyers argued on behalf of con artists and incompetents, investment banks bilked naïve S&L managers, and consultants testified as character witnesses for felons. One of these character witnesses was Alan Greenspan, then an undistinguished economist from whom “you could order the opinion you needed” (Mayer 1990). Greenspan praised thrift-killer Charles Keating’s “seasoned and expert” management team for rescuing a “badly burdened” thrift through “sound and profitable” investments. Every word of this was untrue. Greenspan’s reputation, however, survived intact (just as it did his earlier demented jottings for Ayn Rand’s Objectivist newsletter).
In its infinite generosity, Washington came to the rescue. Of course it had no choice; no modern government would dare let a financial crisis turn into a general collapse. Yet the situation is rich with irony. In the early 1990s, Greenspan would craft the Federal Reserve’s bailout of the 1980s mania. And the braindead caretaker administration of George Bush crafted the greatest socialization of private loss in history, the S&L bailout. And, remarkably, almost nobody has suffered serious criminal penalties or political disgrace for this rampant abuse of trust. Huge quantities of public money — some $200 billion, though definitive accountings are hard to come by — were spent with little discussion or analysis, and the affair is now largely forgotten. The chance to use the industry’s partial liquidation as an opportunity to develop new public and cooperative financial institutions was blown. Within a couple of years of the crisis’ passing, no one paid it any mind any longer. It’s as if it never happened.
…
Sluttish accountancy is a long-standing practice. During the 1960s, John Brooks (1973, pp. 160–162) reported, accountants painted a glowing picture in numbers that merger promoters wanted. Investors, many of them naïfs, eagerly bought paper that only a few years later would turn out to be near worthless. “By following conservative practices and their consciences, accountants could have prevented this jiggery-pokery; they did not.” You could say exactly the same thing about the financial disasters of the last 15 years. Had Wall Street analysts, who are presumably competent to do so, given the accountants’ numbers a serious second look, much recent jiggery-pokery might have been detected.
No Comments » |
Business, Interesting Articles |
Permalink
Posted by Nelson Yee
February 14, 2008
I occasionally still think I might want to be an analyst at a hedge fund. I have a friend who does this at a small boutique firm in Manhattan, and I think his reasoning for entering the industry drops him easily into the demographic profiled in this article from the New York Times last fall:
Dozens of young people (mostly male) who want to be, or already are, successful traders said in interviews that they relished the challenge of their jobs, in addition to the lofty paychecks.
But they also spoke as if a money-clock were ticking: many said they wanted to make as much money as fast as they could so that they could live in style later in life while doing less lucrative things like running a charity, working for the government, spending time with their families, or inventing new technologies. Some, of course, plan to stay in finance their entire careers, and they, too, are very focused on earning fat bonuses fast.
I know that in my case, too, I imagine I could have my cake and eat it. These young guns seem to believe that it’s possible to spend five to ten years in the fast-paced finance world — just long enough to make that fortune — and come out the other side unscathed, fully stacked and able to pursue anything their hearts’ desire. I suppose this is possible occasionally, as evidenced by the occasional random Google or Microsoft millionaire that has gone on to a pleasant retirement running hobby charities, but has wealth and greed really been decoupled in this way? I think it can, but I think the difficulty is that most people in this position will not be able to achieve great wealth as fast and easily as they think. It’d be interesting to profile these kids in the next few years, or even now, months and a much more unpredictable market later, to see how their hedge funds are doing. This article seems to be “of its time” — in a year or two, it might seem quaint or naive, the way an article about dot-com millionaires does now.
That said, I do applaud the lack of credence in the value of MBAs, at least as far as investing/finance goes. From everything I know and have read, the average MBA (except maybe a Wharton grad) is ill-equipped to just jump into a financial analyst job, or at least not that much more equipped than a smart and savvy person with an above average interest in finance.
No Comments » |
Business, Finance and Investing Links, Interesting Articles, Investing Philosophy |
Permalink
Posted by Nelson Yee